Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 minutes ago, and this point is in it.
One other detection within 20 km in the last 24 hours, 8 km from here.
This alert is in force until 29 September 2026, 21:00 UTC.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 7 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 June 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 6 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 8:07AM MST until September 29 at 2:00PM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ
Urban PEI: 857,584 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 15 June 2026
- July 25, 2026 · 4.2 km
- September 12, 2026 · 7.0 km
- September 29, 2026 · score 46 · 8.3 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 41 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 41 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 33.9546, -112.2456 |
| Nearest City | Anthem (13 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 857.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-29T15:07:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.3c03f5df265227cd6948a79920c9a28a3f2746a6.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-29T15:07:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-29T14:43:18.535Z. Material modification: 2026-09-29T15:10:32.789Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-29T15:10:32.789Z · data_change
Index 46 → 41.
1 retained revision changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3c03f5df265227cd6948a79920c9a28a3f2746a6.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Yavapai, AZ; Maricopa, AZ |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 8:07AM MST until September 29 at 2:00PM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-29T14:00:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Flagstaff AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 5 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3c03f5df265227cd6948a79920c9a28a3f2746a6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7fe78f3e5898da69cd76eb5b1b5a71e38be5a275.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e5dcce8919d01d3fa0ba509621965487376ab545.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2ebefb2dcc03253397a9cf57efc6acf239d1fa1d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f3416fd6289cfd6d3f1e0482152ab320389019db.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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